अमेरिकन मार्केट

Submitted by केदार on 4 February, 2010 - 18:33

अमेरिकन शेअरबाजारा बद्दलच्या घडामोडी इथे लिहीने अपेक्षित आहे.

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LAMarathi: The problem is yahoo finance is not providing last days data, in this case 3/30/2012 data is missing hence the error. Sad You may be able to see the data on the website but when the data is pulled that days data is missing...

योगिबेअर
Went through the Stock strategies page. I think the recommendation on that page is to enter on horizontal breakout of a bullish stock. In my view, better entry point may be after the stock retests the new support / old resistance level and bounces off that support level with above average volume.
The 401k/IRA strategies defined in your article are good and with a disciplined approach may avoid huge losses. Entry / Exit strategy based on MA can be a little late (lagging) in pulling trigger but its a safer and confirmed approach than following other leading and aggressive indicators.

LAMarathi: Thanks for the feedback. No doubt you can add more flavors as per your trading experience/style and comfort level. Yes, that could be another entry point but does not necessarily mean you will always get a retracement to initial entry point.

401K strategy is tested with data over two decades (using BPNYA entry/exit NYSE index) and significantly increases returns if you understand the strategy and follow it regularly. The idea is to avoid putting money in lazy 401K portfolio, preserve your money and avoid significant losses especially during financial crash. Compounding over 10-20-30 years will yield significant returns over the period and you will have a GOOD retirement portfolio (this does not mean you become millionaire overnight)...

Moving averages are used on breadth indicator (BPNYA) and funds (for exit signal if fund is not performing) to protect gains and avoid losses.

Simple Q to ask yourself:
1. Did you avoid financial crash of 2008 knowingly
2. Can you actively and successfully manage your 401K portfolio
If answer is NO then you better get start now....

The intent of the site is to keep it simple and easy for average/novice investor. Also, if you noticed, all data used is freely available without any subscription/paid service hence limited in scanning right "stock" candidates. Once you know how to identify candidates then you can do lot of different tactics as per your style/strategy using your chosen scanning tool.... Happy

Good luck trading...

Hi Yogibear,

In the spreadsheet for 2 symbols there is always an error. For some reason VSCIX and VMCIX always shows missing data for whole row. Could it be a problem at Yahoo finance?

LAMarathi: yahoo finance is not providing data for last day which is causing this error.

A new spreadsheet will soon be posted which will allow users to see which symbol's data is missing or user can enter manual data as well, which will provide a way to solve the problem... Happy

Hi Yogibear,
I entered the list of MFs and ETFs into 401K and ETF excel file. While reviewing the top 3 momentum based funds I noticed that these top 3 funds didn't perform as well as other funds listed way down in the lis. Is there a strategy that you suggest in this situtation? Are you suggesting that when the Buy signal is generated the Funds with highest momentum will do better with start of a new bull market?

The market is very depressed right now and BPNYA is below 200 EMA. I am waiting and preparing the fund list to enter in the market when Buy signal is triggered.

If any of already invested 401K funds / ETF shifts direction and are now in red as per the excel file is that the time to re-allocate that fund? This is assuming that there is no holding period restriction on the fund.

Thanks.

LAMarathi:

We change positions only during BUY / SELL signals based on BPNYA.

401K - We remain in cash or money market fund when market is down and get into funds only when we get BUY signal. Ranking needs to be done when we get BUY signal and NOT when market is going down. You cannot rank them ahead of time since market has not established a bottom yet. Once we are near a BUY signal, the TOP funds have more probability of performing better than rest of the pack. You can check this by entering past dates and see how each funds performed as back testing.

ETF:
1. Use Bond ETFs when market is down or when we get SELL signal
2. Use Equity ETFs when market is up or when we get BUY signal

Remember: Ranking needs to be done when signal is generated and for the right kind of list. Understand the logic, ranking any list without understanding which list to use in what market will NOT help.

Once you are in a fund and that particular fund is not performing then it will show up red which is a trigger to get out and move to next top ranked fund. However, if you already got a SELL signal based on BPNYA then you are better off exiting the fund rather than wait for market to take it down.

I hope this helps....

योगीबेअर,
चांगली माहिती दिलीस. धन्यवाद.
मी options trading मध्ये पण आहे, महिन्यात एकदा Iron Condor strategy on index options घेच्या प्रयत्न आसतो.

LAMarathi: आपण options साठी काय strategy वापरता व केव्हा/कशी implement करायची त्या बद्दल इथे लिहा...

अश्विनीमामी: Buying IPO on 1st day has NO real edge, unless you are trying to day trade. Let the IPO settle (form a base pattern) and then buy at breakout. Check out google historic chart, it was listed at $98/- and in a month a base was formed at 100 which was a good entry point. Another base was formed near 120 and 140 area where you can add to your original position. However, keep in mind that market needs to be in a BULL trend for IPOs to work without which it can be a loosing game. As of now facebook (FB) opened at 38-45 range and the news is that underwriters are not letting it fall below 38 which means for now it is artificially kept above 38 mark. Market is in correction and another 100-200 drop or panic selling can bring the price well below 38 easily.... ONLY time will tell...

योगिबेअरः Do you follow IBD investing strategies, can slim, cup and handle, IBD200 etc.?

By the way, on options front, buying call options in SDS (Ultrashort) at the beginning of the month would have made sense, the price was at support with relatively cheap option premium to buy call options with low AvgImpVol and the overall market condition was looking bearish. The stock was ready to bounce back from this level. This is one of the options strategy that I follow and I look for the various factors mentioned above. I trade only in buying call options no buying puts yet. This is only for information purpose and not a recommendation to buy or sell, there is risk associated with option trading.

LAMarathi: IBD is subscription based (paid service). I do not have a subscription but do read articles on Investors.com. Once we understand the basic philosophy of what to look for while screening stocks then we can identify winners. Will write an article on how to screen stocks on MySavingsPlan.weebly.com for those who use paid software's for screening stocks.

Regarding Options few questions:
1. How do you identify the underlying stock? for which you will buy call options
2. What pattern you look for before buying call option?
3. What constitutes "cheap" option premium?
4. Since options are risky, and since you ONLY take position in call options, how do you manage risk? What if trade goes against you!

Another Option strategy:
1. ONLY select stocks which moved more than $25/- in a month (typically you will find very high priced stocks in this category)
2. Now look for stock which is consolidating or in pullback near MA(20) or MA(50) or EMA(20)
3. Volume during pullback should be relatively lower
4. Earnings are NOT within next 4-6 weeks (to avoid earning surprises)
5. If above conditions are true then "most likely" the stock will bounce back up
6. Understand overall market condition, and trade ONLY during market BULL move
7. Buy call options with strike price = actual price * 0.8 (In the money)
8. call option expiration date/month needs to be at least 6 weeks out (to avoid time value erosion)
9. Execute BUY order ONLY if stock price moves above the last days high price (bouncing UP from moving average)
10. Protect losses by having Stop loss below the low price of previous day

It may look very easy to follow above rules but playing options requires good risk management along with timing to be successful else small losses can add up quickly.

अश्विनी मामी, हे FB IPO article माझ्या एका मित्राने पाठविले :

interesting post:

Nope ... it was overpriced.
The only thing that prevented the stock from going below the IPO price was MASSIVE underwriter support (i.e. the banks that got paid to do the IPO buying the stock in large volume whenever it hit the IPO price of $38).
Look at the price chart here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FB+Interactive#symbol=fb;range=1d [yahoo.com]
See the flatline at $38 from 3:30-4:00pm? That's due to the underwriters buying the stock in massive volume providing support at $38. If you monitored the detailed stock quote during this time (as I did), you'd have seen that the bid volume, normally single or double digit lots spiked to a continuous 99999+ lots (i.e. 10,000,000+ shares) during this time - i.e. the underwriters were essentially buying unlimited volume of the stock at $38 (to artificially support it). From the trade volume during that final half hour, I reckon the underwriters bought well over 50M shares (10%+ of the 420M shares floated).
So... stumbled out of the gate is being kind.

Yogibear,

I buy IBD's Friday paper edition to scan through the Wekly review section and market spotlight. In this correction market mode, I am making list of sectors leaders stocks and add that to the watch list.

I only trade index options and ultra short of index options. The benefit of trading index options ((SPX, SPY) is tax advantage. The gain is taxed with 60/40 rule meaning 60 % of gain is considered as LT gain and 40 % as ST gain. I normally trade within 30-40 days to expiry of options. I use TD Ameritrade platform chart to gauge % probability of the index option ITM @ expiry, % probability of touching the price @ expiry, open interest, Av. Imp. Volatility, and Volume. The options are generally cheaper when Avg IV is at a lowest level because the pot odds of a large move on either direction is low - but that does not necessarily means that the underlying stock price is right - but it worked in ultra shot funds in past. I am in process of studying the price action relative to its Volatility for SPX. I cut the losses if the options goes against you with stop loss order placed at 7 % below buy price.

For Iron Condor Strategy - currently studying a list of sector leader stocks and watch for patterns after the earnings announcement and if the stock has gone sideways after earnings with low implied volatility. I look for days with high volatility ($VIX above 25) to take a possible Iron condor trade on index options. The challenge is if you are conservative (define a wider range in iron condor call/put trade) then you are risking more.

पुढच्या काही दिवसांत काय होईल माहीत नाही पण गूगल वगैरेंच्या मानाने फेबु च्या आयपीओ चे बरेच "ठंडे" स्वागत झाले असे दिसते.

सुरेश१: try these

1. TeleChart - Very good especially if you are looking for writing your own scan conditions, also the new version allows access from anywhere on the web, quite reasonably priced.
2. Chartmill - Upcoming but awesome screen-er with well defined conditions. Currently FREE with live data. NO fundamentals yet.
3. Finviz - Free version provides you with many parameters which include fundamentals.
4. MarketSmith - Expensive but provides access to IBD list/etc and many traders use it as it provides a comprehensive package.
5. StockScreen123 - Simple yet powerful, you can write your own conditions.
6. Most trading brokerage firms offer some sort of screener however they are not very user friendly to use.

List goes on, it depends on what you are looking for!

Points to consider:
1. Are you looking for predefined screen-er ?
2. Do you want to create your own conditions or write scans ?
3. your budget!
4. ease of use and adaptability
5. hidden cost such as separate charges for alerts, drawings, etc.
6. What are the top most 5 important things according to you a stock screen-er should have!!!
7. Do you really understand how to screen stocks? Do you know what works and what does not!!!

These should guide you into which screen-er is best for you...

Good Luck!

योगीबेअर,
धन्यवाद. साईटस बघून पुढचा निर्णय घेइन. काय येते व काय पाहिजे हे थोडे फार ज्ञात आहे. कुठे अडलो तर विचारीन.

Facebook (FB) stock बद्दल मागे इथे चर्चा झाली होती.... this stock seems to have established a nice base and IF BREAKS out of 34 level वwith good volume then could have potential to move quickly to 40+ area in very short span of time.... (based on pattern) consider for swing trade BUT don't forget to have STOP LOSS LIMIT in place....

Hi Yogibear:

Based on bpnya chart market signal change beginning of this month, one of my friend fully invested in 401K in top 3 ranked funds. But now he told me that almost all of his fund choices are showing either pink/red color. Accordingly to the note on your web site which means to get out of market.But on Friday market made big move and the funds still showed red. Is theer some judgement involved when the system gives a buy/sell signal?
Your inputs please.

Fund list for your reference:
Person A:
PRFDX
VINIX
FLMVX
PRGFX
RPSIX
VBTIX
VIPIX
PRWAX
PRNHX
USTFX

Person B:
FDVLX
AAGPX
FUSVX
FDGFX
TEDIX
FCNTX
FOCPX
FMAGX
BSCFX

The fund shows in LIGHT RED and NOT DARK RED which means the sell signal fired in last 7 days and not in last 2 days....

This is noted in the excel spreadsheet on information sheet.

I hope this helps...

Let's understand the logic:

The idea to show funds in red is to visually show that the fund is not doing well.

What is market telling us? In this case BPNYA signal.... what is it telling us? Stay invested as market turned around "FOR NOW". So the funds which turned light red is due to the fact that earlier last week market was going down. If you check the chart of those funds, most likely they have turned around on Thursday.

If you are invested in funds in your 401K then DO NOT make mistake of getting in and out of funds within 1st 30 days. You will incur sanctions and in some cases penalties along with fund fees.

BIG Question? - Should we get out of those funds showing in red!!!
Simple answer would be YES.... BUT wait...

You should follow simple answer when we are in a sustained BULL market, similar to one that started in beginning of this year.

Since we are possibly coming out of correction, we are not in sustained BULL move. The move has just started after hiccups.The market has NOT yet fired a SELL signal and actually moving higher. If this is BULL move then we are in early stages of the move and our 30 day funds restriction period is NOT over yet. Unless market fires a SELL signal, we should stick to these funds.

If market fires a SELL signal and we are still within 30 day restriction period then once a year you are allowed to move money before 30 days period and ONLY a warning letter is issued. Do this often and your account will be frozen for 6 months.

Things to remember:

  • Use market signal as a guideline
  • Use funds coloring as an indication of poor performance
  • Understand the strategy & logic
  • No system is error proof hence be prepared to act if necessary
  • Ultimate decision should be yours and NOT cause someone else tells you

I hope this helps... Happy

Thanks for your response. I have been advising the same thing to my friiend to be patient and always watch for bpnya signal as a guide for market direction. And sure Fidelity does have strict rules on round trip transcation.

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